The ability of mobile app marketers to drive consistent growth through constant change has been, and will continue to be, a major challenge as 2024 commences. Here’s what the data tells us from a tumultuous 2023 and what we can expect in 2024 given these trends.  

1) iOS installs rebounded after ATT shock

After a 15% drop in the number of iOS non-organic installs (NOI) in 2022 compared to 2021, when shockwaves of iOS 14.5 were still being felt, 2023 saw an impressive rebound with a 9% year-over-year rise. 

What’s in store for 2024: With iOS, we’ll likely see continued growth, especially with the major enhancements in SKAN 4. But while SKAN 4.0 represents a positive step forward, it still grapples with many issues particularly when dealing with incomplete or unavailable data from SKAN. The use of a single source of truth (SSOT) to de-duplicate multiple iOS data sources will drive higher NOI figures and more efficient budget allocation with more installs attributed to marketing, lower effective costs, and near real-time insights (instead of waiting for days for input).

On the Android front, 2024 is the year of Privacy Sandbox. A complete overhaul of measurement on Android will have a profound impact on NOIs. As we’ve seen with the rollout of iOS 14.5, such massive changes can take at least a year to prepare for, figure out, and ultimately drive positive business outcomes. It’s therefore vital to get ahead of the curve in early 2024.

2) Total app downloads increased only 2% in 2023 after a 10% rise in 2022

The total number of mobile apps that users downloaded in 2023 increased by only 2%, compared to a 10% rise in 2022. This was largely the result of a 4% decline among non-gaming Android apps, which is the largest among other category/platform combinations. 

What’s in store for 2024: With Android Privacy Sandbox, there may be a period of adjustment that will reduce the volume of Android installs, which make up the vast majority of global app downloads. According to recent research from Cisco, 64% of UAE consumers have deleted more applications than they have installed meaning mobile marketers will have to fight harder to gain installs and continue to work hard on their remarketing and loyalty campaigns to stem attrition.

3) In-app purchase revenue in non-gaming apps grew 19% 

In-app purchases (IAP) on non-gaming apps, which includes subscription revenue, surged 19% YoY driven by major gains in travel, food & drink, utility & productivity, and lifestyle apps, to counter the losses among the two largest categories in non-gaming: shopping and finance, which also were at the top of the categories who cut their ad spend this year. IAP revenue includes subscription revenue, which itself jumped 30% in 2023 to become a key revenue stream for non-gaming apps. 

What’s in store for 2024: App monetization remained robust last year across IAP, in-app advertising (IAA), and subscription revenue streams, showing consumers are continuing to spend money on apps despite ongoing economic and advertising industry uncertainty. As economic signs are improving, this trend is therefore likely to continue in 2024. Furthermore, we expect more apps to adopt hybrid monetization with gaming combining mainly IAA and IAP and non-gaming mainly IAP and subscription revenue. 

4) Android remarketing conversions down 9%

Non-gaming remarketing conversions on Android dropped 9% YoY in line with the budget decreases in app install ad spend due to the economic downturn. Gaming remarketing enjoyed a 34% surge, but it should be noted that this activity represents only a fraction of overall remarketing and a very small percentage compared to the use of UA in gaming. 

What’s in store for 2024: As we move from advertising-ID-based remarketing under Privacy Sandbox to remarketing using the new Protected Audiences API, we are confident that remarketing will have successful continuity thanks to this robust solution. 

On the iOS front, there’s also the expectation of a proper solution for remarketing without IDFA under SKAN 5, which may be released early next year. It appears that it will only support re-engagement with users who have an app installed, not those who have deleted it. It’s not currently clear how this will work, but it appears that Apple will develop a framework that’s similar to the Protected Audiences API. 

Hurdles to overcome

With consumers becoming increasingly selective, Privacy Sandbox soon to be rolled out, continued budgetary pressures, and constantly evolving market dynamics, mobile marketers will have to work diligently to navigate their way to success in 2024. Being aware of the above data trends and closely analyzing campaign performance using measurement platforms will allow marketers to capitalize on the available opportunities.